The government also released a Planning Assumptions paper outlining possible scenarios for how the pandemic might develop in the UK. It says that if the current growth in cases is sustained, a substantial wave of cases with up to 30% of the population experiencing symptoms could peak in early September, although a smaller but earlier peak is also possible.
Alternatively, seasonal effects might substantially slow the epidemic in July and August – perhaps to the extent of leading to a decline in weekly cases in August, before resurgence in the autumn, for example when schools reopen. If so, the overall peak of the pandemic might be delayed to October or even later.
These forecasts and others in the report are based on a "reasonable worst case" value and should therefore not be taken as a prediction of how the pandemic will develop. Planning against the reasonable worst-case scenario will ensure, however, that plans are robust against all likely scenarios.
Mortality planning assumptions range from 3,100 deaths in the UK to 65,000 deaths in a reasonable worst case scenario.
Treatment phase
Andy Burnham, the health secretary, confirmed this month a formal move from a “containment phase” to a “treatment phase" for swine flu.
This means intensive efforts to contain swine flu, such as automatic school closures, will end to free up capacity to treat the increasing numbers of people who are contracting swine flu each day.
It also means that cases of swine flu will be confirmed by clinicians rather than through lab testing.
What will happen during the treatment phase?
The shift to a treatment phase has important practical implications for the public and the NHS. It means that as of today:
• GPs will be able to diagnose swine flu on the basis of patients’ symptoms rather than waiting for laboratory testing.
• The routine tracing of people who have come into contact with confirmed cases of swine flu will end.
• Schools and other institutions will close only if local circumstances warrant it, for example if a significant number of pupils or teachers are ill.
The way in which the antiviral medicines Tamiflu and Relenza are used and distributed will also change:
• The medicines will continue to be offered to all those who show symptoms of swine flu at their doctor's discretion.
• They will no longer be given to completely healthy people simply to slow the spread of swine flu.
• They will be used for prevention (prophylaxis) only on the advice of a doctor in high-risk groups. These include people with long-term conditions, those over 65, children under five and pregnant women.
• Individuals who require antivirals will be given a voucher reference entitling them to pick up the medication at a local collection point.
As part of the move to a treatment phase, the health secretary also announced the launch of a National Pandemic Flu Service.
This is a new telephone system that will support GPs in the diagnosis of swine flu and the distribution of antivirals. It will allow people with suspected swine flu to be diagnosed and given vouchers for antivirals via a dedicated call centre or online.
What should I do today if I think I have swine flu?
• Read up on swine flu symptoms then use the NHS Direct swine flu symptom checker
• If you are still concerned, stay at home and call your GP who will be able to provide a diagnosis over the phone. Use our service search to find contact details
• If swine flu is confirmed, ask a healthy friend or relative to visit your GP to pick up a document entitling you to antiviral medication
• They will then need to pick up the medication at a collection point your GP will advise on (a local pharmacy or similar)
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